Learning modules
Twelve structured modules covering the full landscape of decision-making under uncertainty. Start where your needs are greatest.
Foundation Track
Core concepts that form the basis for everything else. Start here if you're new to structured decision thinking.
Module 1
Probability Thinking
Most people think in binaries. Will this work or won't it? Probability thinking breaks that habit. This module teaches you to assign likelihoods to outcomes, update those estimates as new information arrives, and make decisions that account for the full range of what might happen.
- Calibration: matching confidence to evidence
- Base rates and how to use them
- Updating beliefs with Bayesian reasoning
- Avoiding overconfidence and underconfidence
Module 2
Bias Recognition
Cognitive biases aren't character flaws. They're predictable patterns in how the human mind simplifies complex situations. This module builds awareness of the biases most likely to affect high-stakes decisions, so you can catch them in the act.
- Confirmation bias and how it distorts analysis
- Anchoring effects in numerical estimates
- Availability heuristic and recency bias
- Sunk cost reasoning and how to counter it
Core Track
Practical frameworks for structuring your thinking and evaluating options. The working toolkit of a careful decision-maker.
Module 3
Scenario Planning
The future isn't a single path. Scenario planning treats it as a set of possibilities, each with different implications for your choices today. This module teaches you to build useful scenarios, stress-test your decisions against them, and identify robust options that work across multiple futures.
- Identifying key uncertainties in your situation
- Building plausible and distinct scenarios
- Testing decisions across multiple futures
- Finding options that are robust across scenarios
Module 4
Risk Assessment
Risk and uncertainty are different things. Risk can be measured. Uncertainty can't. Understanding the distinction changes how you approach decisions. This module teaches frameworks for evaluating downside scenarios, understanding variance, and building decisions that account for what can go wrong.
- Distinguishing risk from uncertainty
- Pre-mortem analysis: imagining failure first
- Asymmetric downside and how to evaluate it
- Building resilient decision structures
Advanced Track
Deeper material for those who want to refine their thinking and apply it in complex, high-stakes situations.
Decision Journals
Build a practice of recording and reviewing your decisions. Learn what to track, how to review, and how to extract useful lessons from past choices.
Learn moreGroup Decision Dynamics
Decisions made with others introduce new failure modes. This module covers groupthink, information cascades, and structured techniques for better collective choices.
Learn moreTime and Patience
When should you decide now, and when is waiting the right move? This module explores the decision of when to decide, and the costs of both early and delayed commitment.
Learn moreValues Clarification
Good decisions require knowing what you actually want. This module provides structured tools for clarifying values and priorities before evaluating options.
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